Monday, April 18, 2005

The Professor Speaks (again)

In a previous post, I had to take issue with an article in the Scotsman by Professor Matt Qvortrup. In a piece in todays Press and Journal he's at it again.
This post is an attempt to put the Professor's opinion to the test.

In the Scotsman article the Professor had suggested that Aberdeen South could "go blue". It's fair to say that this just is not true. I made the point in my previous post and this letter to the Scotsman makes the same point. The Tories cannot win the Aberdeen South constituency unless something truly extraordinary happens. It is not going to happen.

But the Press and Journal today has him saying:
"a combination of a low turnout and a drift from Labour to the Lib Dems could see the Tories overtaking the Lib Dems in Aberdeen South sufficiently well to unseat Anne Begg, the Labour candidate defending the constituency."
How does that work then? A reminder of the starting positions might be in order. A swing from the first place candidate to the second placed candidate will lead to the third place candidate winning? Even with a very low turnout it doesn't seem very plausible to me.

He also said "the polls indicate that the Tories are moving forward."
Here is a post from yesterdays Guardian election blog to put that comment into perspective.
The best result the Tories can expect from recent polls still gives Labour a 50 seat majority.

In my previous post I said that the Professor's attitude "leaves me wondering whether the Professor might just be a strong Labour supporter."
Perhaps I am just a very cynical person. I thought I'd see if I could check. One quick google later and I find this on the RGU appointments pages:
"A graduate of Oxford University and former policy advisor to both Jack Straw and David Blunkett".
It's all starting to make sense now. The Professor has a close association with New Labour.
Would it be rude to suggest that this is why his opinions seem so far removed from the facts?
I think not.

It is another case of "Vote Lib Dem, get the Tories".
I've mentioned this before. It is a nonsense.
Nick Barlow has written a post on this and via his post yesterday, Phil Hunt has written a more detailed version here.
I'm afraid Professor Matt Qvortrup is taking part in the great New Labour "Tories are Terrorist" campaign. It's not pretty and it certainly isn't clever.

No comments: